The Bank of Ghana (BoG) is convening an emergency meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today, Thursday, July 17, 2025. Despite signs of easing inflation and growing calls for a looser monetary stance, Fitch Solutions expects the central bank to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 28%.
According to the research arm of Fitch Ratings, BoG officials are likely to hold off on cutting rates until there is clearer, sustained evidence of disinflation.
In March, the central bank surprised markets by raising rates by 100 basis points, citing ongoing inflationary pressures. However, Fitch now forecasts that if current macroeconomic trends continue, BoG could begin easing rates as early as September.
Should the MPC decide to start cutting rates this month, Fitch estimates the policy rate could fall to between 24% and 25% by the end of the year—lower than its current projection of 26%.
Inflation dropped significantly to 13.7% in June, sharply narrowing the gap between inflation and the policy rate. Ghana now has one of the highest real interest rates among African frontier markets, as the central bank continues to pursue a tight monetary policy.
The downward trend in inflation has been supported by a stable Ghanaian cedi and a robust external sector. Since May, the cedi has remained steady, buoyed by rising international reserves, which reached $7.9 billion in April—equivalent to nearly four months of import cover.
This reserve build-up has been driven largely by a surge in gold export revenues, supported by high global gold prices amid geopolitical uncertainty and strong central bank demand worldwide.
Source:Mybrytfmonline.com/Nana Agyenim Boateng Sikapa
